UK studies
An evaluation of the Circles ReBoot pilot phase, ‘Circle ReBoot Evaluation. Findings from a Feasibility Study for Circles ReBoot’, (2023), was completed by Professor Derek Perkins and Dr Hannah Merdian from onlinePROTECT and Royal Holloway University.
The evaluation used the RE-AIM feasibility evaluation framework and demonstrated that;

• The programme design and methodology are appropriate for the service user group,
• The materials are effective, and
• The semi-structured programme design works effectively.

Click here for the evaluation summary and here for the full evaluation.

A national evaluation of the Completing the Circle National Lottery funded project (Winder et al. 2020) identified four statistically significant findings:

• Core Members demonstrated an 18% reduction in dynamic risk scores over the course of their Circle.
• Reintegration (protective) factors showed significant improvements; 52% of Core Members increased in confidence, 45% in self-esteem, 32% felt more positive about life and 56% were less isolated.
• 100% of the Core Members included were in stable and suitable accommodation and an increased number were in work after their Circle finished.
• 67% of Core Members showed significant improvement in emotional wellbeing (a protective factor) during the course of their Circle.

The study also found that over time, the confidence levels of Volunteers increased and they acquired transferable skills.

Clarke et al. (2016) examined data from 275 Core Members in Circles between 2002 and 2013. Compared to at the start of the Circle, significantly fewer Core Members were unemployed, or claiming benefits and significantly more were living with a partner, family or alone in independent accommodation. Significantly more Core Members reported to be in a relationship than at the commencement of the Circle.

International studies
An initial evaluation of Circles’ (Canada) impact on recidivism found that offenders who participated in Circles had (against a matched control group) (Wilson et al. 2007);

• 70% (statistically significant) reduction in sexual recidivism
• 57% reduction in all types of violent recidivism
• An overall reduction of 35% in all types of recidivism, compared to the control group.

A further study by Wilson et al. (2009) (Canada), found that offenders who participated in Circles had (against a matched comparison group);

• 83% reduction in sexual recidivism
• 73% reduction in all types of violent recidivism
• An overall reduction of 72% in all types of recidivism, compared to the control group

In the Netherlands, a study of 17 Core Members participating in Circles demonstrated improvements in psychological and social functioning such as emotion regulation, internal locus of control, problem solving and social skills. Hoing et al. (2015)

An update of a Random Control Trial study by Duwe (2012) with a larger sample size demonstrated an 88% reduction in the risk of re-arrest for a new sexual offence and significant reductions across measures for general recidivism. (Duwe 2018).

Cost Effectiveness
A cost-benefit analysis of the Minnesota CoSA programme identified an 82% return on investment as a result of avoiding the costs associated with recidivism (Duwe, 2012). The updated report demonstrated an even greater return of 273%: for each $1 spent on Circles, there was an estimated benefit of $3.73 (Duwe, 2018). The findings show the programme has generated an estimated $2 million in costs avoided to the state, resulting in a benefit of $40,923 per participant. The study also found that although difficult to implement, the CoSA model is a cost-effective intervention for sex offenders that could also be applied to other correctional populations with a high risk of violent recidivism.

Elliot & Beech (2012) reported an overall cost benefit of Circles in England and Wales: providing a cost saving of £23,494 per annum, per 100 offenders, and a benefit-cost ratio of 1.04. While this appears a modest return on investment, it is comparable to other criminal justice interventions. When the full extent of the costs of sexual abuse for victims, families and wider society are considered, the expected cost savings attributed to Circles may be in the region of £650,000-£1.4m.